Analyzing the Three-Way Premier League Title Race: Liverpool, Arsenal, or Man City?

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The Premier League table depicts a close race between Arsenal, Liverpool, and Manchester City, with just two points separating the top three teams. Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal is facing the toughest run-in based on the league fixtures, and despite their last league title being won 20 years ago, they lead in goal difference. Liverpool’s recent string of defeats has shifted the momentum in favor of Manchester City. The top three teams have been competing closely since Christmas, with the title race being the joint-tightest ever as only two points or fewer have divided the top three after 32 games.

City’s form is currently dominant, with an average return of 2.2 points per game over their previous five league outings, compared to Arsenal and Liverpool. Guardiola’s Manchester City has a strong chance of clinching an unprecedented fourth consecutive title, given their depth and ability to navigate through multiple competitions. Arsenal holds the best defense this season, as reflected in their expected goals against total, but they need to outperform City in the remaining fixtures. The analysis of upcoming Premier League fixtures shows that Liverpool, Arsenal, and Manchester City are facing opponents of similar difficulty based on their current league position.

Manchester City is currently favored to win the title, with a 68.1% chance according to Opta’s supercomputer, while Arsenal and Liverpool collectively represent a 32% chance of denying City their record fourth title.

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